Long-term breast cancer incidence trends by mammography, obesity, and menopausal hormone therapy.

Purpose: Over the past half century, the annual age-adjusted breast cancer incidence in the USA has fluctuated, potentially influenced by changes in mammography screening, obesity, and menopausal hormone therapy. As the relative contributions of these factors on breast cancer incidence have not been resolved, we assembled reliable sources of year-to-year changes in mammography, obesity, and hormone therapy to graphically display their relationship to breast cancer incidence through 50 years.

Methods: Year-to-year trends were assembled: for mammography from the Center for Disease Control National Health Interviews; for hormone therapy from the Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer report; for obesity from the NCD (Non-Communicable Diseases) Risk Factor Collaboration; and for breast cancer for US women 50-64 years of age from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry findings.

Results: Increases in age-adjusted breast cancer incidence trend from about 1982 to 2002 track both mammography and hormone therapy use but not obesity. However, the sudden decrease in breast cancer incidence in 2003, subsequently sustained at a lower incidence level, only tracks the parallel reduction in hormone therapy use.

Conclusion: The sustained reduction in hormone therapy use from 2003 provides a plausible explanation for most of the lower breast cancer incidence seen in US postmenopausal women during the last two decades. The strong observational study obesity association with higher breast cancer risk is not reflected in breast cancer incidence trends.