Comparison of various prediction models in the effect of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass on type 2 diabetes in the Chinese population 5 years after surgery.

Background: Various prediction models of type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission have been externally verified internationally. However, long-term validated results after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery are lacking. The best model for the Chinese population is also unknown.

Objectives: To evaluate the prediction effect of various prediction models on the long-term diabetes remission after RYGB in the Chinese population and to provide reference for clinical use.

Setting: A retrospective clinical study at a university hospital.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed Chinese population data 5 years after RYGB and externally validated 11 predictive models to evaluate the predictive effect of each model on long-term T2D remission after RYGB.

Results: We enrolled 84 patients. The mean body mass index was 41 kg/m, and the percentage of excess weight loss (%EWL) was 72.3%. The mean glycated hemoglobin level was 8.4% preoperatively and decreased to 5.9% after 5 years. The 5-year postoperative complete and partial remission rates of T2D were 31% and 70.2%, respectively. The ABCD scoring model (sensitivity, 84%; specificity, 76%; area under the curve [AUC], .866) and the Panuzi et al. [34] study (sensitivity, 84%; specificity, 81%; AUC, .842) showed excellent results. In the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration values for ABCD and Panuzi et al. [34] were .14 and .21, respectively. The predicted-to-observed ratios of ABCD and Panuzi et al. [34] were .83 and .88, respectively.

Conclusions: T2D was relieved to varying degrees 5 years after RYGB in patients with obesity. The prediction models in ABCD and the Panuzi et al. [34] studies showed the best prediction effects. ABCD was recommended for clinical use because of excellent predictive performance, good statistical test results, and simple and practical design features.