Water security assessment and driving mechanism in the ecosystem service flow condition.

Water resources are the foundation of human survival and development. Thus, it is essential to quantify the relationship between water supply and demand and assess water security to ensure sustainable use of water resources. In this study, we quantified the relationship between water supply and demand in the Yiluo River Basin (YRB) using the InVEST model, constructed a spatial flow model of water provision service at the sub-watershed scale, and analyzed the water security index (WSI) under static and dynamic conditions. Subsequently, we used geographic detectors to identify the explanatory power of the main influencing factors of the WSI. The results showed that (1) from 2005 to 2018, the water supply decreased continuously and the water demand first increased and then decreased in the YRB; (2) the spatial pattern of WSI showed that it was high in the southwest and low in the northeast, wherein the highest and lowest WSI values occurred in 2005 and 2018, respectively. From 2005 to 2018, the mean values of the static and dynamic WSI decreased from 0.77 to 0.60 and 1.56 to 1.20, respectively. (3) The precipitation factor from the supply dimension and the gross domestic product (GDP) factor from the demand dimension had the strongest explanatory power for the static WSI. For the dynamic WSI, the flow quantity of the water provision service flow had the strongest explanatory power. This study provided a reference for governments to formulate sustainable water resource management.