Improved prediction of long-term kidney outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes by levels of circulating haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells.

Aim/hypothesis: We examined whether prediction of long-term kidney outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes can be improved by measuring circulating levels of haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs), which are reduced in diabetes and are associated with cardiovascular risk.

Methods: We included individuals with type 2 diabetes who had a baseline determination of circulating HSPCs in 2004-2019 at the diabetes centre of the University Hospital of Padua and divided them into two groups based on their median value per ml of blood. We collected updated data on eGFR and albuminuria up to December 2022. The primary endpoint was a composite of new-onset macroalbuminuria, sustained ≥40% eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease or death from any cause. The analyses were adjusted for known predictors of kidney disease in the population with diabetes.

Results: We analysed 342 participants (67.8% men) with a mean age of 65.6 years. Those with low HSPC counts (n=171) were significantly older and had a greater prevalence of hypertension, heart failure and nephropathy (45.0% vs 33.9%; p=0.036), as evidenced by lower eGFR and higher albuminuria at baseline. During a median follow-up of 6.7 years, participants with high vs low HSPC counts had lower rates of the composite kidney outcome (adjusted HR 0.69 [95% CI 0.49, 0.97]), slower decline in eGFR and a similar increase in albuminuria. Adding the HSPC information to the risk score of the CKD Prognosis Consortium significantly improved discrimination of individuals with future adverse kidney outcomes.

Conclusions/interpretation: HSPC levels predict worsening of kidney function and improve the identification of individuals with type 2 diabetes and adverse kidney outcomes over and beyond a clinical risk score.