Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for the efficacy of malaria candidate vaccines: A subgroup analysis of pooled clinical trial data.

Background: Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was previously suggested as a marker for malaria vaccine effectiveness. We investigated the potential of this cell ratio as a marker for malaria vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. Effectiveness was investigated by using clinical malaria endpoint, and efficacy was investigated by using surrogate endpoints of Plasmodium falciparum prepatent period, parasite density, and multiplication rates in a controlled human malaria infection trial (CHMI).

Methods: We evaluated the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine effectiveness using Cox regression modeling with clinical malaria as the primary endpoint. Of the 1704 participants in the RTS,S field trial, data on monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was available for 842 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted. We further used Spearman Correlations and Cox regression modeling to evaluate the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine efficacy using the surrogate endpoints. Of the 97 participants in the controlled human malaria infection vaccine trials, hematology and parasitology information were available for 82 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted.

Results: The unadjusted efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccine was 54% (95% CI: 37%-66%, p <0.001). No correlation was observed between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine efficacy (Hazard Rate (HR):0.90, 95%CI:0.45-1.80; p = 0.77). The unadjusted efficacy of Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine in the appended dataset was 17.6% (95%CI:10%-28.5%, p<0.001). No association between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and the Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine was found against either the prepatent period (HR = 1.16; 95%CI:0.51-2.62, p = 0.72), parasite density (rho = 0.004, p = 0.97) or multiplication rates (rho = 0.031, p = 0.80).

Conclusion: Monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio alone may not be an adequate marker for malaria vaccine efficacy. Further investigations on immune correlates and underlying mechanisms of immune protection against malaria could provide a clearer explanation of the differences between those protected in comparison with those not protected against malaria by vaccination.