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The Best-Case Heuristic: Relative Optimism in Relationships, Politics, and a Global Health Pandemic. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • Participants in four experiments were asked to predict future outcomes in realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios, with results from nearly 2,900 Americans showing a tendency to favor optimism.
  • Predictions deemed "realistic" were found to be much closer to the best-case scenarios rather than the worst-case ones, indicating a positive bias in how people forecast their futures.
  • The findings suggest that individuals largely base their realistic predictions on optimistic scenarios, ignoring pessimistic ones, and this trend was consistent across different life domains, including health during COVID-19 and political events.

Article Abstract

In four experiments covering three different life domains, participants made future predictions in what they considered the most realistic scenario, an optimistic best-case scenario, or a pessimistic worst-case scenario ( = 2,900 Americans). Consistent with a , participants made "realistic" predictions that were much closer to their best-case scenario than to their worst-case scenario. We found the same best-case asymmetry in health-related predictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, for romantic relationships, and a future presidential election. In a fully between-subject design (Experiment 4), realistic and best-case predictions were practically identical, and they were naturally made faster than the worst-case predictions. At least in the current study domains, the findings suggest that people generate "realistic" predictions by leaning toward their best-case scenario and largely ignoring their worst-case scenario. Although political conservatism was correlated with lower covid-related risk perception and lower support of early public-health interventions, the best-case prediction heuristic was ideologically symmetric.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/01461672231191360DOI Listing

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