An LSM Based Strategy is Comparable to HVPG Measurement to Predict Further Events in Patients with Cirrhosis with Variceal Bleeding as Their Index Decompensation.

Background And Aims: Limited data exist on strategies other than hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) estimation to predict future events in patients with cirrhosis presenting with variceal bleed (VB) but are otherwise compensated. We assessed whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) during VB episode could accurately predict this risk.

Methods: Consecutive patients with cirrhosis with VB as their index decompensation event underwent HVPG and LSM estimation during the VB episode in this prospective study. New onset further decompensation events (ascites, VB, encephalopathy) was assessed over follow-up. The performance characteristics of postbleed LSM were compared with model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score and HVPG to predict future decompensation and were cross-validated.

Results: Mean age of the cohort (n = 68) was 44.2 years and alcohol-related liver disease (55.9%) was the most common etiology. Over a median follow-up of 14 (9-18) months, 18(26.4%) patients developed further decompensation with ascites being the most common event. Patients with further decompensation had a higher median postbleed LSM [60.5 kPa (53-70) vs. 25 kPa (18-34), < 0.001], HVPG [ 19 mm Hg vs. 16 mmHg,  = 0.005], and MELD score [ 12.5 (11-14.7) vs. 10 (8-12)  < 0.001]. The area under receiver-operator characteristics curve for postbleed LSM [0.928 (95%CI: 0.868-0.988)] was higher than both HVPG [0.733(0.601-0.865),  = 0.003] and MELD score [0.776(0.664-0.889),  = 0.019] to predict further decompensation. Optimism-corrected c-statistic using MELD and postbleed LSM was similar to a combination of HVPG, MELD, and postbleed LSM.

Conclusion: Postbleed LSM is comparable to HVPG estimation in predicting further decompensation events in patients with otherwise compensated cirrhosis presenting with VB.