Closing the loop between horizon scanning and health technology assessment - an overview of topics submitted for appraisal in England.

Objectives: Horizon scanning for health technology appraisal (HTA) in England involves topic notification to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) via technology briefings. This activity is undertaken by the Innovation Observatory with submission timelines designed to ensure that HTA decisions align with regulatory approval time. In this paper, we aimed to track and assess the progression and current status of the topics notified for HTA and provide a descriptive analysis of these topics.

Methods: Technology briefings were mapped from submission to NICE technology appraisal/highly specialized technologies recommendations from April 2017 until October 2021. This was done using a combination of searches on Google and NICE website, searching a downloadable spreadsheet containing NICE topic selection decisions, and querying NICE Topic Selection team. Analysis was undertaken regarding type of indications and interventions of submitted topics and published guidance.

Results: Six-hundred and ninety-three topics entered the NICE scoping process, of which 94 percent were prioritized. As of November 2021, approximately 39 percent of prioritized topics were in scoping/in progress, 31 percent were proposed/completed, 20 percent were suspended/terminated, and 4 percent were referred back to Innovation Observatory (IO) for further monitoring.

Conclusions: Our work demonstrates that horizon scanning for HTA is a complex and time-intensive process. Timelines and progress through HTA is challenging due to the growing number of innovative medicines, significant uncertainties, and limited transparency in clinical development and regulatory pathways. A better understanding of clinical trials and regulatory requirements may help eliminate some of this uncertainty and improve timely HTA.