Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Severe Pneumonia after Kidney Transplantation: A Single-Center Retrospective Study.

Background: The objective of this study was to formulate and validate a prognostic model for postoperative severe pneumonia (SPCP) in kidney transplant recipients utilizing machine learning algorithms, and to compare the performance of various models.

Methods: Clinical manifestations and laboratory test results upon admission were gathered as variables for 88 patients who experienced PCP following kidney transplantation. The most discriminative variables were identified, and subsequently, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) models were constructed. Finally, the models' predictive capabilities were assessed through ROC curves, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F1-scores. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm was employed to elucidate the contributions of the most effective model's variables.

Results: Through lasso regression, five features-hemoglobin (Hb), Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), progressive dyspnea, and Albumin (ALB)-were identified, and six machine learning models were developed using these variables after evaluating their correlation and multicollinearity. In the validation cohort, the RF model demonstrated the highest AUC (0.920 (0.810-1.000), F1-Score (0.8), accuracy (0.885), sensitivity (0.818), PPV (0.667), and NPV (0.913) among the six models, while the XGB and KNN models exhibited the highest specificity (0.909) among the six models. Notably, CRP exerted a significant influence on the models, as revealed by SHAP and feature importance rankings.

Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms offer a viable approach for constructing prognostic models to predict the development of severe disease following PCP in kidney transplant recipients, with potential practical applications.