Minimally Invasive Surgery With Thrombolysis for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation: Bayesian Reanalysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background And Objectives: Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can extend the value of trial data beyond interpretations based on conventional value-based binary cutoffs. We conducted an exploratory post hoc Bayesian reanalysis of the minimally invasive surgery with thrombolysis for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) evacuation (MISTIE-3) trial and derived probabilities of potential intervention effect on functional and survival outcomes.

Methods: MISTIE-3 was a multicenter phase 3 RCT designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the MISTIE intervention. Five hundred and six adults (18 years or older) with spontaneous, nontraumatic, supratentorial ICH of ≥30 mL were randomized to receive either the MISTIE intervention (n = 255) or standard medical care (n = 251). We provide Bayesian-derived estimates of the effect of the MISTIE intervention on achieving a good 365-day modified Rankin Scale score (mRS score 0-3) as relative risk (RR) and absolute risk difference (ARD), and the probabilities that these treatment effects are greater than prespecified thresholds. We used 2 sets of prior distributions: (1) reference priors, including minimally informative, enthusiastic, and skeptical priors, and (2) data-derived prior distribution, using a hierarchical random effects model. We additionally evaluated the potential effects of the MISTIE intervention on 180-day and 30-day mRS and 365-, 180-, and 30-day mortality using data-derived priors.

Results: The Bayesian-derived probability that MISTIE intervention has any beneficial effect (RR >1) on achieving a good 365-day mRS score was 70% using minimally informative prior, 87% with enthusiastic prior, 68% with skeptical prior, and 73% with data-derived prior. However, these probabilities were ≤55% for RR >1.10 and 0% for RR >1.52 across a range of priors. The probabilities of achieving RR >1 for 180- and 30-day mRS scores are 65% and 80%, respectively. Furthermore, the probabilities of achieving RR <1 for 365-, 180-, and 30-day mortality are 93%, 98%, and 99%, respectively.

Discussion: Our exploratory analyses indicate that across a range of priors, the Bayesian-derived probability of MISTIE intervention having any beneficial effect on 365-day mRS for patients with ICH is between 68% and 87%. These analyses do not change the frequentist-based interpretation of the trial. However, unlike the frequentist values, which indirectly evaluate treatment effects and only provide an arbitrary binary cutoff (such as 0.05), the Bayesian framework directly estimates the probabilities of potential treatment effects.

Trial Registration Information: ClinicalTrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01827046.

Classification Of Evidence: This study provides Class II evidence that minimally invasive surgery (MIS) + recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) does not significantly improve functional outcome in patients with ICH. However, this study lacks the precision to exclude a potential benefit of MIS + rt-PA.