The associations of ambient fine particles with tuberculosis incidence and the modification effects of ambient temperature: A nationwide time-series study in China.

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM) is a major air pollutant that poses significant risks to human health. However, little is known about the association of PM with tuberculosis (TB) incidence, and whether temperature modifies the association.This study aimed to explore the association between ambient PM exposure and TB incidence in China and the modification effects of temperature. Weekly meteorological data, PM concentrations, and TB incidence numbers were collected for 22 cities across Mainland China, from 2011 to 2020. A quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess city-specific PM-TB associations. A multivariate meta-regression model was then used to pool the city-specific effect estimates, at the national and regional levels. A J-shaped PM-TB relationship was observed at the national level for China. Compared to those with minimum PM-TB risk, people who were exposed to the highest PM concentrations had a 26 % (RR:1.26, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.52) higher risk for TB incidence. J-shaped PM-TB associations were also observed for most sub-groups, however, no significant modifying effects were found. While a trend was observed between low temperatures and increased exposure-response associations, these results were not significant. Overall, approximately 20 % of TB cases in the 22 study cities, over the period 2011-2020, could be attributed to PM exposure. Strengthening the monitoring and emission control of PM could aid the prevention and control of TB incidence.