A predictive model for hyperuricemia among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Urumqi, China.

Background: Patients with type 2 diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) are more likely to suffer from a higher uric acid level in blood-hyperuricemia (HUA). There are no conclusive studies done to predict HUA among T2DM patients. Therefore, this study aims to explore the risk factors of HUA among T2DM patients and finally suggest a model to help with its prediction.

Method: In this retrospective research, all the date were collected between March 2017 and October 2019 in the Medical Laboratory Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University. The information included sociodemographic factors, blood routine index, thyroid function indicators and serum biochemical markers. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate binary logistic regression were performed to screen the risk factors of HUA among T2DM patients in blood tests, and the nomogram was used to perform and visualise the predictive model. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, internal validation, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the prediction performance of the model.

Results: We total collected the clinical date of 841 T2DM patients, whose age vary from 19-86. In this study, the overall prevalence of HUA in T2DM patients was 12.6%. According to the result of LASSO-logistic regression analysis, sex, ethnicity, serum albumin (ALB), serum cystatin C (CysC), serum inorganic phosphorus (IPHOS), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), serum bicarbonate (CO2) and high-density lipoprotein (HDLC) were included in the HUA risk prediction model. The nomogram confirmed that the prediction model fits well (χ = 5.4952, P = 0.704) and the calibration curve indicates the model had a good calibration. ROC analysis indicates that the predictive model shows the best discrimination ability (AUC = 0.827; 95% CI: 0.78-0.874) whose specificity is 0.885, and sensitivity is 0.602.

Conclusion: Our study reveals that there were 8 variables that can be considered as independent risk factors for HUA among T2DM patients. In light of our findings, a predictive model was developed and clinical advice was given on its use.