Early On-treatment Circulating Tumor DNA Measurements and Response to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Advanced Urothelial Cancer.

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) can induce durable disease control in metastatic urothelial cancer (mUC), but only 20-25% of patients respond. Early identification of a nondurable response will improve management strategies.

Objective: To investigate whether on-treatment circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) measurements can predict ICI responsiveness in mUC patients.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This study consists of a discovery cohort of 40 mUC patients and a prospective multicenter validation cohort of 16 mUC patients. Plasma cell-free DNA was collected at baseline and after 3 and 6 wk on ICIs. The ctDNA levels were calculated from targeted sequencing.

Outcome Measurements And Statistical Analysis: Outcome measurements were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and nondurable response (PFS ≤6 mo). Relationships with ctDNA were assessed using Cox regression. Changes in ctDNA level at 3 and 6 wk were categorized by an increase or decrease relative to baseline.

Results And Limitations: In the discovery cohort, ctDNA was detected in 37/40 (93%) of patients at baseline. A ctDNA increase was observed in 12/15 (80%) and ten of 12 (83%) patients with a nondurable response at 3 and 6 wk, respectively. Of patients with a durable response (PFS >6 mo), 94% showed a decrease. A ctDNA increase at 3 wk was associated with shorter PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 7.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-19.5) and OS (HR 8.0, 95% CI 3.0-21.0), independent of clinical prognostic variables. Similar results were observed at 6 wk. The 3-wk association with PFS was validated in a prospective cohort (HR 7.5, 95% CI 1.3-42.6). Limitations include the limited number of patients.

Conclusions: Early changes in ctDNA levels are strongly linked to the duration of ICI benefit in mUC and may contribute to timely therapy modifications.

Patient Summary: Benefit from immunotherapy can be predicted after only 3 wk of treatment by investigating cancer DNA in blood. This could help in timely therapy changes for urothelial cancer patients with limited benefit from immunotherapy.