Comparison of Weight-Gain-Based Prediction Models for Retinopathy of Prematurity in an Australian Population.

Purpose: Four weight-gain-based algorithms are compared for the prediction of type 1 ROP in an Australian cohort: the weight, insulin-like growth factor, neonatal retinopathy of prematurity (WINROP) algorithm, the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Retinopathy of Prematurity (CHOPROP), the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity (CO-ROP) algorithm, and the postnatal growth, retinopathy of prematurity (G-ROP) algorithm.

Methods: A four-year retrospective cohort analysis of infants screened for ROP in a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit in Brisbane, Australia. The main outcome measures were sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values.

Results: 531 infants were included (mean gestational age 28 + 3). 24 infants (4.5%) developed type 1 ROP. The sensitivities, specificities, and negative predictive values, respectively, for type 1 ROP (95% confidence intervals) were for WINROP 83.3% (61.1-93.3%), 52.3% (47.8-56.7%), and 98.4% (96.1-99.4%); for CHOPROP 100% (86.2-100%), 46.0% (41.7-50,3%), and 100% (98.4-100%); for CO-ROP 100% (86.2-100%), 32.0% (28.0%-36.1%), and 100% (98.3-100%); and for G-ROP 100% (86.2-100%), 28.2% (24.5-32.3%), and 100% (97.4-100%). Of the five infants with persistent nontype 1 ROP that underwent treatment, only CO-ROP was able to successfully identify all.

Conclusions: CHOPROP, CO-ROP, and G-ROP performed well in this Australian population. CHOPROP, CO-ROP, and G-ROP would reduce the number of infants requiring examinations by 43.9%, 30.5%, and 26.9%, respectively, compared to current ROP screening guidelines. Weight-gain-based algorithms would be a useful adjunct to the current ROP screening.