Patterns and Trends in Mortality Associated With and Due to Diabetes Mellitus in a Transitioning Region With 3.17 Million People: Observational Study.

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) imposes a significant disease burden in economically transitioning regions. Most transitioning regions share similar experience in urbanization processes. Shanghai's Pudong district serves as a representative area of such regions.

Objective: We aimed to assess the burden of and trends in DM mortality in Shanghai's Pudong district and analyze the impact of aging and multimorbidity.

Methods: A longitudinal, population-based study was conducted to analyze DM mortality in Pudong from 2005 to 2020. We used joinpoint regression to analyze epidemiological features and long-term trends in crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate worldwide (ASMRW), and years of life lost (YLL). Furthermore, the decomposition method was used to evaluate the contribution of demographic and nondemographic factors associated with mortality.

Results: There were 49,414 deaths among individuals with DM, including 15,512 deaths due to DM. The CMR and ASMRW were 109.55/10 and 38.01/10 person-years, respectively. Among the mortality associated with and due to DM, the total annual ASMRW increased by 3.65% (95% CI 3.25%-4.06%) and 1.38% (95% CI 0.74%-2.02%), respectively. Additionally, the total annual YLL rate increased by 4.98% (95% CI 3.92%-6.05%) and 2.68% (95% CI 1.34%-4.04%). The rates of YLL increase in persons aged 30 to 44 years (3.98%, 95% CI 0.32%-7.78%) and 45 to 59 years (4.31%, 95% CI 2.95%-5.69%) were followed by the increase in persons aged 80 years and older (10.53%, 95% CI 9.45%-11.62%) for deaths associated with DM. The annual CMR attributable to demographic factors increased by 41.9% (95% CI 17.73%-71.04%) and 36.72% (95% CI 16.69%-60.2%) for deaths associated with and due to DM, respectively. Hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease were the top 3 comorbidities.

Conclusions: Aging and multimorbidity played essential roles in changing the burden of DM in an urbanizing and transitioning region. There is an increasing disease burden among young and middle-aged people, emphasizing the need for greater attention to these groups. Health management is an emerging method that holds important implications for alleviating the future burden of DM.