Development and validation of a web-based predictive model for preoperative diagnosis of localized colorectal cancer and colorectal adenoma.

Background: Localized colorectal cancer (LCC) has obscure clinical signs, which are difficult to distinguish from colorectal adenoma (CA). This study aimed to develop and validate a web-based predictive model for preoperative diagnosis of LCC and CA.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study that included data from 500 patients with LCC and 980 patients with CA who were admitted to Dongyang People's Hospital between November 2012 and June 2022. Patients were randomly divided into the training (n=1036) and validation (n=444) cohorts. Univariate logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and multivariate logistic regression were used to select the variables for predictive models. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to evaluate the performance of the model.

Results: The web-based predictive model was developed, including nine independent risk factors: age, sex, drinking history, white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, red blood cell distribution width, albumin, carcinoembryonic antigen, and fecal occult blood test. The AUC of the prediction model in the training and validation cohorts was 0.910 (0.892-0.929) and 0.894 (0.862-0.925), respectively. The calibration curve showed good consistency between the outcome predicted by the model and the actual diagnosis. DCA and CIC showed that the predictive model had a good clinical application value.

Conclusion: This study first developed a web-based preoperative prediction model, which can discriminate LCC from CA and can be used to quantitatively assess the risks and benefits in clinical practice.