Cost-effectiveness of Catheter Ablation Versus Antiarrhythmic Drug Therapy for the Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation: A Canadian Perspective.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects approximately 350,000 Canadians and has an estimated annual economic burden exceeding $800 million dollars. Anti-arrhythmic drug (AAD) therapy and catheter ablation (CA) are the two common treatments for paroxysmal AF. However, the upfront costs of CA are quite substantial. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of CA compared to AAD for AF based on community practice. A Markov simulation model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 55-year-old patients with paroxysmal AF and a low stroke risk. Patients received either CA or AAD. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were computed over lifetime, 10-year, and 5-year time horizons. Model inputs were obtained from a large, prospectively collected, single-center Canadian registry and augmented with the published literature, using Canadian cost estimates for disease states. Threshold values of $25,000, $50,000, and $100,000 per QALY, respectively, were used to determine cost-effectiveness. All costs were expressed in 2012 Canadian dollars. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CA versus AAD therapy was $1,228, $22,879, and $63,647 for the lifetime, 10-year, and 5-year time horizons, respectively. Over a lifetime horizon, the probability of achieving cost-effectiveness was 100% for all 3 cost per QALY thresholds. The 10-year probability of achieving cost-effectiveness was 74%, 100%, and 100% at the $25,000, $50,000, and $100,000 thresholds, respectively. The 5-year probability of achieving cost-effectiveness was 0%, 0.9%, and 100% at the 3 cost per QALY thresholds. Results were most sensitive to time horizon, probability of repeat AF ablation, and stroke rate. From the perspective of the Canadian Healthcare system, CA is a potentially cost-effective treatment compared to AAD therapy in a low stroke risk population using real-world data when examining a time horizon of greater than 5 years.