Ecological impact assessment of green virtual water flow in inter-provincial crop commutation within China.

Green water is crucial for to regional ecological sustainability. Currently, there is a lack of research on the impact of crop green water communication on the regional ecology in China. The ecological impact index (EII) and integrated ecological water supply (IES) were proposed to comprehensively evaluate the regional ecological impact of the green virtual water flow (GVWF) of crops. Based on the principle of trade cost minimization, this study simulated the inter-provincial crop commutation within China during 2010-2019 by assigning weights to production, demand, and transportation costs, and analyzed the impact of crop communication on regional ecology. The results showed that multi-year average GVWF among provinces was 216.45 Gm, accounting for 33.7 % of the total green water footprint of crops. The ecological impact of GVWF varies among provinces and years. The EII values in Beijing, Shanghai, and Jiangsu were all >100, whereas it was <1 in Yunnan and Xizang. Regional management policies for water resources, ecology, and economic development should be formulated taking into account the IES and EII jointly. It is recommended to increase the export of green virtual water of crops and expand the ecological area while ensuring the utilization rate of green water in regions with higher EII values, such as Guangxi and Yunnan. In the future, it is important for district managers to prioritize the quality of ecological development and protect ecological areas from erosion while pursuing urban development. This study innovatively evaluated the ecological impact of crop communication in different regions, which has guiding significance for the trade management in the ecologically water-deficient areas.