Climate risk zoning for wheat crops in the southeastern region of Brazil.

Background: Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the second most consumed food in the world. One way to meet this demand is the expansion of wheat cultivation to the Brazilian Cerrado in the southeastern region. However, one of the major limitations is that there are few studies related to wheat climate risk zoning. Thus, this study aimed to determine the agroclimatic zoning of wheat by estimating the water needs satisfaction index (ISNA) in the southeastern region of Brazil. For this purpose, a 60-year historical series of meteorological data was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration, crop evapotranspiration, and climatological water balance values. To define the agroclimatic zones of wheat and sowing date, the ISNA method was used. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to determine the variations. To obtain the agroclimatic zoning of wheat, the geostatistical method of kriging interpolation was used.

Results: The regions with the highest rainfall are the south of Minas Gerais and the coast of São Paulo. The sowing period directly impacts the development of the crop, the available water capacity and the ISNA values indicated the spring and summer had better cultivation conditions, and the best window for wheat cultivation is concentrated in the fall due to the limitation of biotic factors.

Conclusion: In terms of altitude (>700 m), Minas Gerais has 39.4% of the area suitable for wheat cultivation. Thus, climatic variations within and between the states of the southeastern region should be considered for the positioning of wheat cultivars in these regions to obtain the maximum yield. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.