Trends in and Prognostic Significance of Time to Treatment in Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

Introduction: The association of time to treatment (TTT) with survival remains unclear in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). In this study, we evaluate the recent trends in TTT, causes for delay, and its effect on survival.

Methods: We included patients with PDAC of all stages from the National Cancer Database (2004-2020) who underwent either surgery or chemotherapy/radiotherapy (CT/RT). TTT was defined as the duration between tissue diagnosis and first treatment. Linear regression (β) was used to study the temporal trends in time delay.

Results: A total of 239,638 patients were included. The median TTT was 25 days. Using multivariable analysis, we found that increasing age (OR 1.48), female gender (OR 1.04), Black race (OR 1.3), lower educational status (OR 1.2), Medicaid, Medicare insurance, and uninsured (OR 1.2, 1.5, and 1.2, respectively), treatment at academic centers (OR 1.3), higher Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index (OR 1.2), and CT/RT (OR 1.5) were associated with increased TTT. There was a steady rise in median TTT from 21 to 28 days between 2004 and 2020 (β = 0.3), suggestive of a worsening trend. Concurrently, there was an increasing trend in utilization of neoadjuvant CT/RT between 2004 and 2020 in early-stage PDAC. On Cox regression, TTT delay was associated with poor overall survival in stage I-IV patients (HR 1.1, 1.1, 1.09, and 1.53, respectively).

Conclusions: Delayed treatment approaching 2 months was observed in 10% of the population. The rising temporal trend in TTT may be attributed to the increasing shift toward neoadjuvant CT/RT in early-stage PDAC and/or the increasing use of tissue biopsy prior to surgery.