Assessment of badland susceptibility and its governing factors using a random forest approach. Application to the Upper Llobregat River Basin and Catalonia (Spain).

Badlands are considered hotspots of sediment production, contributing to large fractions of the sediment budget of catchments and river basins. The erosion rates of these areas can exceed 100 t ha y, leading to significant environmental and economic impacts. This research aims to assess badland susceptibility and the relevance of its governing factors at different spatial scales using the well-known machine learning approach random forest (RF). The Upper Llobregat River Basin (ULRB, approx. 500 km) and Catalonia (approx. 32,000 km) have been selected as study areas. Previous studies stated that the RF approach is successful at making predictions for the same area where it has been trained, but the results of testing it in a different area remains unexplored. This work aims to evaluate the feasibility of upscaling to the large region of Catalonia a RF model trained in the small ULRB area. Two badland datasets of both small and large regions and a total of eleven governing factors have been used to determine the areas susceptible to badlands. Models performance has been analyzed through three different evaluation metrics: overall accuracy, kappa coefficient and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The outcomes of this work confirmed that RF is a powerful tool for badland susceptibility analysis, specially when predictions are made in the same scale and spatial context where the model has been trained. Upscaling a RF model defined in the ULRB to the large area of Catalonia has been possible, but improved results have been obtained when the training of the models has directly been performed in the large region. Our final RF modelling results have facilitated the development of a large scale (32,000 km) Badland Susceptibility Map for the full extension of Catalonia with a predictive overall accuracy of 97%, which strongly emphasizes lithology and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as the main conditioning factors of badland distribution.