Abundance considerations for modeling yield of rapeseed at the flowering stage.

Introduction: To stabilize the edible oil market, it is necessary to determine the oil yield in advance, so the accurate and fast technology of estimating rapeseed yield is of great significance in agricultural production activities. Due to the long flowering time of rapeseed and the characteristics of petal color that are obviously different from other crops, the flowering period can be carefully considered in crop classification and yield estimation.

Methods: A field experiment was conducted to obtain the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral images. Field measurements consisted of the reflectance of flowers, leaves, and soils at the flowering stage and rapeseed yield at physiological maturity. Moreover, GF-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite images were collected to compare the applicability of yield estimation methods. The abundance of different organs of rapeseed was extracted by the spectral mixture analysis (SMA) technology, which was multiplied by vegetation indices (VIs) respectively to estimate the yield.

Results: For the UAV-scale, the product of VIs and leaf abundance (AbdLF) was closely related to rapeseed yield, which was better than the VIs models for yield estimation, with the coefficient of determination (R2) above 0.78. The yield estimation models of the product of normalized difference yellowness index (NDYI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and AbdLF had the highest accuracy, with the coefficients of variation (CVs) below 10%. For the satellite scale, most of the estimation models of the product of VIs and rapeseed AbdLF were also improved compared with the VIs models. The yield estimation models of the product of AbdLF and renormalized difference VI (RDVI) and EVI (RDVI×AbdLF and EVI×AbdLF) had the steady improvement, with CVs below 13.1%. Furthermore, the yield estimation models of the product of AbdLF and normalized difference VI (NDVI), visible atmospherically resistant index (VARI), RDVI, and EVI had consistent performance at both UAV and satellite scales.

Discussion: The results showed that considering SMA could improve the limitation of using only VIs to retrieve rapeseed yield at the flowering stage. Our results indicate that the abundance of rapeseed leaves can be a potential indicator of yield prediction during the flowering stage.