The Predictive Potential of Nutritional and Metabolic Burden: Development of a Novel Validated Metric Predicting Increased Postoperative Complications in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery.

Study Design: A retrospective cohort review.

Objective: To develop a scoring system for predicting increased risk of postoperative complications in adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery based on baseline nutritional and metabolic factors.

Background: Endocrine and metabolic conditions have been shown to adversely influence patient outcomes and may increase the likelihood of postoperative complications. The impact of these conditions has not been effectively evaluated in patients undergoing ASD surgery.

Materials And Methods: ASD patients 18 years or above with baseline and two-year data were included. An internally cross-validated weighted equation using preoperative laboratory and comorbidity data correlating to increased perioperative complications was developed via Poisson regression. Body mass index (BMI) categorization (normal, over/underweight, and obese) and diabetes classification (normal, prediabetic, and diabetic) were used per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Diabetes Associates parameters. A novel ASD-specific nutritional and metabolic burden score (ASD-NMBS) was calculated via Beta-Sullivan adjustment, and Conditional Inference Tree determined the score threshold for experiencing ≥1 complication. Cohorts were stratified into low-risk and high-risk groups for comparison. Logistic regression assessed correlations between increasing burden score and complications.

Results: Two hundred one ASD patients were included (mean age: 58.60±15.4, sex: 48% female, BMI: 29.95±14.31, Charlson Comorbidity Index: 3.75±2.40). Significant factors were determined to be age (+1/yr), hypertension (+18), peripheral vascular disease (+37), smoking status (+21), anemia (+1), VitD hydroxyl (+1/ng/mL), BMI (+13/cat), and diabetes (+4/cat) (model: P <0.001, area under the curve: 92.9%). Conditional Inference Tree determined scores above 175 correlated with ≥1 post-op complication ( P <0.001). Furthermore, HIGH patients reported higher rates of postoperative cardiac complications ( P =0.045) and were more likely to require reoperation ( P =0.024) compared with low patients.

Conclusions: The development of a validated novel nutritional and metabolic burden score (ASD-NMBS) demonstrated that patients with higher scores are at greater risk of increased postoperative complications and course. As such, surgeons should consider the reduction of nutritional and metabolic burden preoperatively to enhance outcomes and reduce complications in ASD patients.