Risk stratification of clinically relevant delayed gastric emptying after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Background: Delayed gastric emptying (DGE) remains one of the major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), with discrepant reports of its contributing factors. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to identify potential predictors and predict the probability of DGE after PD.

Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 422 consecutive patients who underwent PD from January 2019 to December 2021 at our institution. The LASSO algorithm and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify independent risk and protective factors associated with clinically relevant delayed gastric emptying (CR-DGE). A nomogram was established based on the selected variables. Then, the calibration curve, ROC curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were applied to evaluate the predictive performance of our model. Finally, an independent cohort of 45 consecutive patients from January 2022 to March 2022 was enrolled to further validate the nomogram.

Results: Among 422 patients, CR-DGE occurred in 94 patients (22.2%). A previous history of chronic gastropathy, intraoperative plasma transfusion ≥ 400 ml, end-to-side gastrointestinal anastomosis, intra-abdominal infection, incisional infection, and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) were identified as risk predictors. Minimally invasive pancreaticoduodenectomy (MIPD) was demonstrated to be a protective predictor of CR-DGE. The areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.768 (95% CI, 0.706-0.830) in the development cohort, 0.766 (95% CI, 0.671-0.861) in the validation cohort, and 0.787 (95% CI, 0.633-0.940) in the independent cohort. Then, we built a simplified scale based on our nomogram for risk stratification.

Conclusions: Our study identified seven predictors and constructed a validated nomogram that effectively predicted CR-DGE for patients who underwent PD.