What happened to health labour markets during COVID-19? Insights from the analysis of cross-sectional survey data on the perceptions of medical doctors in Brazil.

Objectives: To examine physicians' perceptions of changing employment opportunities in Brazil, and gain an insight into labour markets in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) during the pandemic.

Study Design: Descriptive and inferential analysis of a quantitative dataset from a representative cross-sectional survey of physicians of two Brazilian states.

Settings: São Paulo and Maranhão states in Brazil.

Participants: Representative sample of 1183 physicians.

Outcome Measures: We estimated prevalence and 95% CIs for physicians' perceptions of changes in demand and supply of doctors, as well as changes in prices of medical services for facilities of practice in the two states, stratified by public, private and dual-practice physicians.

Results: Most doctors reported increased job opportunities in the public sector (54.9%, 95% CI 52.0% to 57.7%), particularly in Maranhão state (65.0%, 95% CI 60.9% to 68.9%). For the private sector, increased opportunities were reported only in large private hospitals (46.7%, 95% CI 43.9% to 49.6%) but not in smaller clinics. We recorded perceptions of slight increases in availability of doctors in Maranhão, particularly in the public sector (51.4%, 95% CI 43.2% to 59.5%). Younger doctors recounted increased vacancies in the public sector (64%, 95% CI 58.1% to 68.1%), older doctors only in walk-in clinics in Maranhão (47.5%, 95% CI 39.9% to 55.1%). Those working directly with patients with COVID-19 saw opportunities in public hospitals (65%, 95% CI 62.3% to 68.4%) and in large private ones (55%, 95% CI 51.8% to 59.1%).

Conclusions: Our findings hint that health labour markets in LMICs may not necessarily shrink during epidemics, and that impacts will depend on the balance of public and private services in national health systems.