Background: The public health sectors can use the forecasting applications to determine vaccine stock requirements to avoid excess or shortage stock. This prediction will ensure that immunization protection for COVID- 19 is well-distributed among African citizens.
Objective: The aim of this study is to forecast vaccination rate for COVID-19 in Africa.
Methods: The method used to estimate predictions is the hybrid forecasting models which predicts the COVID-19 vaccination rate (CVR). HARIMA is a hybrid of ARIMA and the Linear Regression model and HGRNN is a hybrid of Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model which are used to improve predictive accuracy.
Results: In this study, standard and hybrid forecasting models are used to evaluate new COVID-19 vaccine cases daily in May and June 2021. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, the COVID-19 vaccine dataset for Africa was used, which included new vaccine cases daily from 13 January 2021 to 16 May 2021. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Error Percentage (EP) are used as evaluation measures in this process. The results obtained showed that the hybrid GRNN model performed better than the hybrid ARIMA model.
Conclusion: HGRNN model provides accurate daily vaccinated case forecast, which helps to maintain optimal vaccine stock to avoid vaccine wastage and save many lives.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10398474 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ahs.v23i1.11 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
The GRAS transcription factor PtrPAT1 of functions in cold tolerance and modulates glycine betaine content by regulating the -like gene.
Hortic Res
January 2025
National Key Laboratory for Germplasm Innovation and Utilization of Horticultural Crops, College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
GRAS, termed after gibberellic acid insensitive (GAI), RGA (repressor of GA1), and SCR (scarecrow), is a plant-specific transcription factor crucial for plant development and stress response. However, understanding of the functions played by the GRAS members and their target genes in citrus is limited. In this study, we identified a cold stress-responsive GRAS gene from , designated as PtrPAT1, by yeast one-hybrid library screening using the promoter of , a betaine aldehyde dehydrogenase (BADH)-like gene.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFCurrent views and trends of nanomaterials as vectors for gene delivery since the 21st century: a bibliometric analysis.
Nanomedicine (Lond)
January 2025
Department of Orthopedic, Spinal Pain Research Institute, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Background: Gene therapy is garnering increasing support due to its potential for a "once-delivered, lifelong benefit." The limitations of traditional gene delivery methods have spurred the advancement of bionanomaterials. Despite this progress, a thorough analysis of the evolution, current state, key contributors, focal studies, and future directions of nanomaterials in gene delivery remains absent.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFA hybrid model for carbon price forecasting based on SSA-NSTransformer: Considering the role of multi-stage carbon reduction targets.
J Environ Manage
January 2025
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China. Electronic address:
In order to reduce the unpredictability of carbon prices caused by their increasingly prominent environmental and market attributes, and to minimize their negative impact on carbon trading, further research on forecasting models for carbon price is urgently needed. To improve the accuracy of prediction, this paper proposes a carbon price forecasting method based on SSA-NSTransformer. The method includes four main steps: Firstly, decomposition of carbon price signals, using Singular Spectrum Analysis to remove noise signals; Secondly, analysis of influencing factors, using Random Forest to identify and select key influencing factors of carbon price signal components from energy price, financial market, socio-economic, and environmental aspects; Furthermore, influencing factors prediction, considering the impact of different carbon reduction targets and predicting future trends of influencing factors; And finally, carbon price prediction, considering the impact of factors based on multi-stage carbon reduction targets, using Non-stationary Transformer to predict the signal components of carbon prices, reconstructing the carbon price time series, and testing the model accuracy.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPredicting Carbonic Anhydrase Binding Affinity: Insights from QM Cluster Models.
J Phys Chem B
January 2025
School of Chemistry, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
A systematic series of QM cluster models has been developed to predict the trend in the carbonic anhydrase binding affinity of a structurally diverse dataset of ligands. Reference DLPNO-CCSD(T)/CBS binding energies were generated for a cluster model and used to evaluate the performance of contemporary density functional theory methods, including Grimme's "3c" DFT composite methods (rSCAN-3c and ωB97X-3c). It is demonstrated that when validated QM methods are used, the predictive power of the cluster models improves systematically with the size of the cluster models.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMorphological Abnormalities Classification of Red Blood Cells Using Fusion Method on Imbalance Datasets.
Microsc Res Tech
January 2025
Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Silchar, Silchar, Assam, India.
Red blood cells (RBCs) or Erythrocytes are essential components of the human body and they transport oxygen from the lungs to the body's tissues, regulate balance, and support the immune system. Abnormalities in RBC shapes (Poikilocytosis) and sizes (Anisocytosis) can impede oxygen-carrying capacity, leading to conditions such as anemia, thalassemia, McLeod Syndrome, liver disease, and so on. Hematologists typically spend considerable time manually examining RBC's shapes and sizes using a microscope and it is time-consuming.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!