Exploratory analysis of local extreme-temperature attributable mortality in an urban city of Madrid.

Aim: to assess the Heat (HW) and Cold Waves (CW) risks on health in the urban municipality of Getafe.

Methodology: time series analysis between 01/01/1999-31/10/2013.

Dependent Variable: daily mortality due to natural causes - (ICD-10): A99-R99-.

Independent Variables: the maximum (T) and minimum (T) daily temperature. The mortality-temperature relationship was analysed to determine the thresholds of HW (Threshold) and CW (Threshold). Using Poisson GLM (link = log), the Relative Risk (RR), Attributable Risk (AR) and Attributable Mortality (AM) were determined for each degree of the T exceeding the Threshold (T) and for each degree of T under the Threshold (T). Finally, socioeconomic variables were analysed descriptively.

Results: Threshold was 36 °C while Threshold was 0 °C. The RRs associated with T, i.e. 1.08 (1.03 1.14), are akin to those obtained for T i.e. 1.05 (1.03 1.08). There were 202 HW and 430 CW episodes. The AM to HW totalled 61 (25, 96) deaths, while that attributable to CW reached 146 (82,211) deaths. The vulnerability in Getafe seems to be lower than in surrounding similar urban and rural cities.

Conclusions: The singular urban development of the municipality may have granted it an advantage over surrounding municipalities regarding temperature extremes.