Error mitigation enables PET radiomic cancer characterization on quantum computers.

Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide. While routine diagnosis of cancer is performed mainly with biopsy sampling, it is suboptimal to accurately characterize tumor heterogeneity. Positron emission tomography (PET)-driven radiomic research has demonstrated promising results when predicting clinical endpoints. This study aimed to investigate the added value of quantum machine learning both in simulator and in real quantum computers utilizing error mitigation techniques to predict clinical endpoints in various PET cancer patients.

Methods: Previously published PET radiomics datasets including 11C-MET PET glioma, 68GA-PSMA-11 PET prostate and lung 18F-FDG PET with 3-year survival, low-vs-high Gleason risk and 2-year survival as clinical endpoints respectively were utilized in this study. Redundancy reduction with 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9 Spearman rank thresholds (SRT), followed by selecting 8 and 16 features from all cohorts, was performed, resulting in 18 dataset variants. Quantum advantage was estimated by Geometric Difference (GD) score in each dataset variant. Five classic machine learning (CML) and their quantum versions (QML) were trained and tested in simulator environments across the dataset variants. Quantum circuit optimization and error mitigation were performed, followed by training and testing selected QML methods on the 21-qubit IonQ Aria quantum computer. Predictive performances were estimated by test balanced accuracy (BACC) values.

Results: On average, QML outperformed CML in simulator environments with 16-features (BACC 70% and 69%, respectively), while with 8-features, CML outperformed QML with + 1%. The highest average QML advantage was + 4%. The GD scores were ≤ 1.0 in all the 8-feature cases, while they were > 1.0 when QML outperformed CML in 9 out of 11 cases. The test BACC of selected QML methods and datasets in the IonQ device without error mitigation (EM) were 69.94% BACC, while EM increased test BACC to 75.66% (76.77% in noiseless simulators).

Conclusions: We demonstrated that with error mitigation, quantum advantage can be achieved in real existing quantum computers when predicting clinical endpoints in clinically relevant PET cancer cohorts. Quantum advantage can already be achieved in simulator environments in these cohorts when relying on QML.