Estimation and Prediction of Glucose Appearance Rate for Use in a Fully Closed-Loop Dual-Hormone Intraperitoneal Artificial Pancreas.

Objective: A fully automated artificial pancreas requires a meal estimator and predictions of blood glucose levels (BGL) to handle disturbances during meal times, all without relying on manual meal announcements and user interventions. This study introduces a technique for estimating the glucose appearance rate (GAR) and predicting BGL in people with type 1 diabetes and insulin and glucagon administration. It is demonstrated for intraperitoneal insulin and glucagon delivery but may be adapted to other delivery sites.

Method: The estimator is designed based on the moving horizon estimation (MHE) approach, where the underlying cost function incorporates prior statistical information on the GAR in subjects over the course of a day. The proposed prediction scheme is developed to predict GAR using estimated states and an intestinal model, which is then used to predict BGL with the help of an animal glucose metabolic model.

Results: The intraperitoneal dual-hormone estimator was evaluated on three anesthetized animals, achieving a 21.8% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for GAR estimation and a 10.0% MAPE for BGL prediction when the future GAR is known. For a 120-minute prediction horizon, the proposed predictor achieved an 18.0% MAPE for GAR and a 28.4% MAPE for BGL.

Conclusion: The findings demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed estimator and its potential for use in a fully automated artificial pancreas and reducing user interventions.

Significance: This study represents advancements toward the development of a fully automated artificial pancreas, ultimately enhancing the quality of life for people with type 1 diabetes.