Spatial distribution of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) in Zambia: A vehicle-mounted sticky trap survey and Maxent species distribution model.

Background: Tsetse-transmitted African trypanosomiasis is a debilitating and fatal disease of humans and livestock if left untreated. While knowledge of the spatial distribution patterns of tsetse is essential for the development of risk-based vector control strategies, existing distribution maps in Zambia are more than 40 years old and were based on coarse spatial resolution data. The recently developed vehicle-mounted sticky trap (VST) provides an alternative sampling device to aid in updating existing distribution maps but has not been applied outside an experimental setting and is limited to motorable tracks. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing the VST for area-wide surveys of Glossina morsitans and to use the occurrence records to predict its spatial distribution in Zambia under current environmental conditions using Maxent.

Methodology/principal Findings: Two-sided all-blue VST baited with butanone and 1-octen-3-ol was used to survey 692 and 1020 km of transect routes in G. m. centralis Machado and G. m. morsitans Westwood previously published distribution in Zambia. Maxent species distribution technique was used to predict the potential distribution of the two subspecies using current climatic and environmental data which was then compared to the historical distribution. A total of 15,602 tsetse were captured with G. m. morsitans (58%) being the most abundant. G. m. centralis and G. pallidipes Austin represented 39 and 2% of the catch respectively, and G. brevipalpis Newstead was also detected. The predicted potential distribution for G. m. centralis was 80,863 km2 while that of G. m. morsitans was 70,490 km2 representing a 47 and 29% reduction compared to their historical distributions, respectively.

Conclusion/significance: The VST is effective for sampling G. morsitans outside experimental settings and is recommended for use as an additional tsetse survey tool. The spatial distribution of G. morsitans in Zambia has reduced by 101,051 km2 due to temperature and land cover changes.