Radiomics model based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography to predict early recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after radical resection.

Background: Radical resection remains an effective strategy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Unfortunately, the postoperative early recurrence (recurrence within 2 years) rate is still high.

Aim: To develop a radiomics model based on preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) to evaluate early recurrence in HCC patients with a single tumour.

Methods: We enrolled a total of 402 HCC patients from two centres who were diagnosed with a single tumour and underwent radical resection. First, the features from the portal venous and arterial phases of CECT were extracted based on the region of interest, and the early recurrence-related radiomics features were selected the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator proportional hazards model (LASSO Cox) to determine radiomics scores for each patient. Then, the clinicopathologic data were combined to develop a model to predict early recurrence by Cox regression. Finally, we evaluated the prediction performance of this model by multiple methods.

Results: A total of 1915 radiomics features were extracted from CECT images, and 31 of them were used to determine the radiomics scores, which showed a significant difference between the early recurrence and nonearly recurrence groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that radiomics scores and serum alpha-fetoprotein were independent indicators, and they were used to develop a combined model to predict early recurrence. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for the training and validation cohorts were 0.77 and 0.74, respectively, while the C-indices were 0.712 and 0.674, respectively. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis showed satisfactory accuracy and clinical utilities. Kaplan-Meier curves based on recurrence-free survival and overall survival showed significant differences.

Conclusion: The preoperative radiomics model was shown to be effective for predicting early recurrence among HCC patients with a single tumour.