Objective: Patients with advanced penile squamous cell cancer have a poor prognosis and can benefit from early palliative care consultation. We built a model to identify those patients most likely to benefit.
Methods: Patients with penile squamous cell cancer undergoing inguinal lymph node dissection were identified from the National Cancer Database (NCDB) and a multi-institutional international dataset (INT). A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival (OS) was developed using the NCDB and applied to the INT dataset. Parameters were used to make receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. ROC-related criteria were optimized to identify a predictive probability cut point and dichotomize patients from INT into risk groups for limited OS of <6 and <12 months.
Results: NCDB had 860 deaths; 105 (5%) at 6 months and 296 (15%) at 12 months. INT had 257 deaths; 56 (8%) at 6 months and 124 (18%) at 12 months. Limited OS was associated with older age, greater T and N stage, and fewer lymph nodes removed. Optimized ROC criteria using the OS <6 months curve best dichotomized INT patients into high-risk group with median OS of 24 months (95% CI 18-34) and low-risk group with median OS of 174 months (95% CI 120-NE).
Conclusion: We developed a simple model that could be used as a screening tool for early palliative care referral.
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