Nomogram predicting overall survival of stage IIIB non-small-cell lung cancer patients based on the SEER database.

Purpose: We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of stage IIIB non-small-cell (NSCLC) lung cancer patients and to construct a nomogram to effectively predict their overall survival (OS).

Methods: In total, 4323 patients with stage IIIB NSCLC diagnosed between 1975 and 2018 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Multiple prognostic factors were combined to construct a nomogram for predicting OS of patients with stage IIIB NSCLC. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by C-indexes and calibration curves. The nomogram was evaluated for predictive ability using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis curve (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Results: The nomogram was built on data of 4323 patients with stage IIIB NSCLC and consisted of the following prognostic factors: age, race, sex, primary labeled, pathology, T stage, whether to receive surgery, whether to receive radiotherapy, and whether to receive chemotherapy. The C-index in the training and validation sets for the nomogram was 0.672 (95% CI: 0.661-0.683) and 0.675 (95% CI: 0.656-0.694), respectively. According to scores of the nomogram, patients in the complete set, validation set, and training set were classified into two risk groups, low risk and high risk.

Conclusions: We developed the first validated nomogram to estimate the OS of patients with stage IIIB NSCLC. The nomogram was based on nine prognostic factors and provided an individualized risk estimate of 3-year and 5-year OS survival in patients with stage IIIB NSCLC.