Increasing melanoma incidence and survival trend shifts with improved melanoma-specific survival between 1990 and 2020 in Sweden.

Background: Melanoma-specific survival (MSS) is heterogenous between stages and is highly dependent on the T stage for primary localized disease. New systemic therapies for metastatic cutaneous melanoma (CM) have been introduced since 2012 in Sweden.

Objectives: To analyse the incidence and MSS time trends between 1990 and 2020 in Sweden.

Methods: Nationwide, population-based and prospectively collected clinico-pathological data on invasive CM from the Swedish Melanoma Registry (SweMR) were analysed for survival trends between 1990 and 2020 using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs).

Results: In total, 77 036 primary invasive CMs were diagnosed in 70 511 patients in Sweden between 1990 and 2020. The 5-year MSS [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 88.9% (88.3-89.4) for 1990-2000, 89.2% (88.7-89.6) for 2001-2010 and 93.0% (92.7-93.9) for 2011-2020. The odds ratios for being diagnosed with nodular melanoma (vs. superficial spreading melanoma) was significantly reduced by 20% (2001-2010) and by 46% (2011-2020) vs. the reference period 1990-2000. Overall, the MSS improved over both diagnostic periods (2001-2010 and 2011-2020) vs. the reference period 1990-2000 among men and women, respectively [HRmen: 2001-2010: 0.89 (95% CI 0.82-0.96) and 2011-2020: 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.67); HRwomen: 2001-2010: 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.91) and 2011-2020: 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.70)]. The risk of death from CM was significantly lower in all age groups for both men and women in the most recent diagnostic period (2011-2020 vs.1990-2000).

Conclusions: The results emphasize the improved MSS among men and women in Sweden. The MSS improvements, specifically for the period 2011-2020, may be correlated to the introduction of new systemic therapies and are here shown for the first time in detail for Sweden.