Trend, prevalence and predictors of successful vaginal birth after caesarean section in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) is an alternative to a caesarean section (CS) in the absence of repeat or new indications for primary CS. There is a knowledge gap regarding the trend and successful VBAC in Ethiopia. Therefore this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the trend, pooled prevalence of successful VBAC and its predictors in Ethiopia.

Methods: Electronic databases (SCOPUS, CINAHL, Embase, PubMed and Web of Science), Google Scholar and lists of references were used to search works of literature in Ethiopia. Stata version 14 was used for analysis and the odds ratios of the outcome variable were determined using the random effects model. Heterogeneity among the studies was assessed by computing values for I2 and p-values. Also, sensitivity analyses and funnel plots were done to assess the stability of pooled values to outliers and publication bias, respectively.

Results: A total of 12 studies with a sample size of 2080 were included in this study. The overall success rate of VBAC was 52% (95% confidence interval 42 to 65). Cervical dilatation ≥4 cm at admission, having a prior successful vaginal delivery and VBAC were the predictors of successful VBAC.

Conclusions: Meta-analyses and sensitivity analyses showed the stability of the pooled odds ratios and the funnel plots did not show publication bias. The pooled prevalence of successful VBAC was relatively low compared with existing evidence. However, the rate was increasing over the last 3 decades, which implies it needs more strengthening and focus to decrease maternal morbidity and mortality by CS complications. Promoting VBAC by emphasizing factors favourable for its success during counselling mothers who previously delivered by CS to enhance the prevalence of VBAC.