Prognostic nomograms for nasopharyngeal carcinoma with nodal features and potential indication for N staging system: Validation and comparison of seven N stage schemes.

Purpose: To identify the prognostic value of the nodal features, propose a nomogram-based N stage system and evaluate the performance of seven N stage schemes of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients.

Methods: Data from 1638 non-distant metastatic NPC patients were used to develop nomograms predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Based on nomogram and multivariate analyses, a new N-stage scheme was proposed. The performance of the nomogram-based N staging system was assessed against five newly proposed N staging systems and the current 8th N staging system using a quantitative model to compare hazard consistency, discrimination, outcome prediction, and sample size balance. The Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank tests was used to compare survival differences.

Results: Nomograms to predict OS and DMFS were constructed using extranodal extension infiltrating the surrounding structures (ENEmax), maximal axial diameter (MAD), large retropharyngeal lymph nodes (RLN, minimal axial diameter > 1.5 cm), multiple central nodal necrosis (CNN), and total lymph node (LN) number and level. Multivariate analysis showed the independent prognostic value of ENEmax and MAD > 3 cm for all selected survival endpoints (p < 0.05). Large RLN and lower neck involvement were independently associated with OS (p < 0.05). We proposed using a large RLN and MAD > 3 cm as N2 factors, and ENEmax and lower neck involvement as N3 factors. Among the seven N-stage schemes, our nomogram-based N scheme and ENEmax to N3 scheme (ENE3) ranked in the top two in the overall comparison with the elevated outcome predicting value (highest c-index). However, between the N0, N1, N1, and N2 subgroups, the ENE3 scheme showed no difference in OS or DMFS (p > 0.05).

Conclusion: The predictive model highlighted the independent prognostic value of ENEmax, cervical lymph node, MAD, and large RLN, which can be used as criteria for future N staging.