Evaluation of total tumor volume reduction ratio in initially unresectable colorectal liver metastases after first-line systemic treatment.

Purpose: Total tumor volume (TTV) may play an essential role in the estimation of tumor burden. This study is aimed to investigate the clinical value of the reduction ratio of TTV as a valuable indicator of clinical outcomes in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).

Methods: A total of 240 initially unresectable CRLM patients who underwent first-line systemic treatment were enrolled in this study. TTV at baseline and at the end of first-line treatment were assessed using a three-dimensional reconstruction system according to CT or MRI images. Survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and compared using Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR).

Results: A total of 212 (88.3%) patients achieved tumor regression with a median reduction ratio of TTV of 86.0%. An increasing reduction ratio of TTV was associated with a gradually ascending successful conversion outcome. Patients with a reduction ratio >86.0% had better survival than those with a reduction ratio 0-86.0% or <0 (5-year overall survival (OS) rates, 64.4% vs. 44.9% vs. 23.5%, P < 0.001; 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates, 36.3% vs. 28.2% vs. 6.5%, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that the reduction ratio of TTV ≤ 86.0% (OR [95%CI]: 4.956 [2.654-9.253], P < 0.001) was an independent factor for conversion failure outcome. Cox analyses revealed that the reduction ratio of TTV ≤ 86.0% was an independent factor for both unfavorable OS (HR [95%CI]: 2.216 [1.332-3.688], P = 0.002) and PFS (HR [95%CI]: 2.023 [1.376-2.974], P < 0.001).

Conclusions: The reduction ratio of TTV was an effective indicator for conversion outcome and long-term prognosis in patients with initially unresectable CRLM after first-line systemic treatment.