Can insecticide resistance increase malaria transmission? A genetics-epidemiology mathematical modeling approach.

The great successes recorded in the fight against malaria over the last two decades, resulting from the wide scale implementation of insecticide-based interventions in malaria-endemic areas, has prompted a renewed global effort to eradicate malaria. The widespread emergence of insecticide resistance in the population of adult female malaria mosquitoes is considered to pose a potential challenge to such effort. In this study, we address one of the key questions in malaria ecology, namely whether or not insecticide resistance increase malaria transmission. We developed a genetics-epidemiology modeling framework that incorporates a detailed genotype structure of the gene that confers insecticide resistance in mosquitoes, malaria epidemiology in mosquitoes and humans (stratified based on whether or not they are protected by Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) indoors), genotype-specific mosquito repellance property of LLINs and mosquito biting behavior (indoor and outdoor bites). Conditions for the existence and local asymptotic stability of the various disease-free equilibria (by genotype) of the resulting genetic-epidemiology model are derived. This study identifies four parameters of the model that play a crucial role on quantifying the impact of insecticide resistance on malaria transmission, namely the parameters related to the level of the dominance of the resistant allele in heterozygous mosquitoes, the coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets in the community, the probability of endophilic mosquitoes to successfully take a bloodmeal indoors and the proportion of new adult mosquitoes that are endophilic. We showed that, depending on the values of these four identified parameters, insecticide resistance can increase, decrease, or have no effect on malaria transmission. Our simulations show that malaria eradication can indeed be achieved using the currently-available chemical insecticides, even in the wake of the prevailing widespread insecticide resistance in malaria-endemic areas, if the insecticide-based interventions implemented can result in the attainment of the optimal values of the four identified parameters in malaria-endemic areas.