Association of multi-criteria derived air toxics hazard score with lung cancer incidence in a major metropolitan area.

Background: Lung cancer remains a major health problem world-wide. Environmental exposure to lung cancer carcinogens can affect lung cancer incidence. We investigated the association between lung cancer incidence and an air toxics hazard score of environmental carcinogen exposures derived previously under the exposome concept.

Methods: Lung cancer cases diagnosed in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties between 2008 and 2017 were identified from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted incidence rates at the ZIP code level were calculated based on the residential address at diagnosis. The air toxics hazard score, an aggregate measure for lung cancer carcinogen exposures, was derived using the criteria of toxicity, persistence, and occurrence. Areas with high incidence or hazard score were identified. Spatial autoregressive models were fitted to evaluate the association, with and without adjusting for confounders. Stratified analysis by smoking prevalence was performed to examine potential interactions.

Results: We observed significantly higher age-adjusted incidence rates in ZIP codes that had higher air toxics hazard score values after controlling for demographic variables, smoking prevalence, and proximity to major highways. Analyzes stratified by smoking prevalence suggested that exposure to environmental lung carcinogens had a larger effect on cancer incidence in locations with higher smoking prevalence.

Conclusion: The positive association between the multi-criteria derived air toxics hazard score and lung cancer incidence provides the initial evidence to validate the hazard score as an aggregate measure of carcinogenic exposures in the environment. The hazard score can be used to supplement the existing risk factors in identifying high risk individuals. Communities with higher incidence/hazard score may benefit from greater awareness of lung cancer risk factors and targeted screening programs.