Setting Dengue Fever Epidemic Thresholds Between 2016 and 2021 in the Central Health Region, Burkina Faso: An Ecological Study.

Background: Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Burkina Faso, with 70% of its burden supported by the Central Health Region. Then, a single confirmed case can no longer mean an epidemic. This study aimed at describing trends and setting epidemic thresholds of DF in the Central Health Region.

Data And Methods: An ecological study was conducted using monthly data from DF surveillance between 2016 and 2021. Three methods were applied to set alert and intervention thresholds of DF monthly incidence rate: mean [mean + 2 SD], median [3rd quartile] and cumulative sum (C-sum) [C-sum + 1.96 SD]. These thresholds were plotted with the monthly incidence rates for 2021.

Results: In total, 54,429 cases were reported between 2016 and 2021. Dengue cases increased biannually. The median annual incidence rate did not vary significantly across years [Kruskal-Wallis: χ(5) = 9.825; p = 0.0803]. Within a year, the monthly incidence rate fell under 48.91 cases per 100,000 inhabitants between January and September and peaked in October or November. With the mean and C-sum methods, the 2021 monthly incidence rate remained below the intervention thresholds (Mean + 2 SD and C-sum + 1.96 SD). With the median method, the incidence rate exceeded the alert and intervention thresholds in July-September 2021.

Conclusions: If the DF incidence varied within a year due to the seasons, it was relatively stable between 2016 and 2021. The mean and C-sum methods based on the mean were subject to extreme values, giving high thresholds. The median method seemed better for capturing the abnormal increase in dengue incidence.