Outcome prediction of electroconvulsive therapy for depression.

Introduction: We developed and tested a Bayesian network(BN) model to predict ECT remission for depression, with non-response as a secondary outcome.

Methods: We performed a systematic literature search on clinically available predictors. We combined these predictors with variables from a dataset of clinical ECT trajectories (performed in the University Medical Center Utrecht) to create priors and train the BN. Temporal validation was performed in an independent sample.

Results: The systematic literature search yielded three meta-analyses, which provided prior knowledge on outcome predictors. The clinical dataset consisted of 248 treatment trajectories in the training set and 44 trajectories in the test set at the same medical center. The AUC for the primary outcome remission estimated on an independent validation set was 0.686 (95%CI 0.513-0.859) (AUC values of 0.505 - 0.763 observed in 5-fold cross validation of the model within the train set). Accuracy 0.73 (balanced accuracy 0.67), sensitivity 0.55, specificity 0.79, after temporal validation in the independent sample. Prior literature information marginally reduced CI width.

Discussion: A BN model comprised of prior knowledge and clinical data can predict remission of depression after ECT with reasonable performance. This approach can be used to make outcome predictions in psychiatry, and offers a methodological framework to weigh additional information, such as patient characteristics, symptoms and biomarkers. In time, it may be used to improve shared decision-making in clinical practice.