Correlation of Ultraviolet Radiation Levels With the Incidence of Cutaneous Squamous Cell and Merkel Cell Carcinomas in Non-sunbelt Locales in the United States: 2010-2017.

Background: Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common human malignancy worldwide, with increasing incidence in the United States (US). Recent environmental data have shown that ultraviolet radiation (UVR) levels have increased in the US, particularly in the higher latitudes, but the potential impact of this on NMSC incidence is not well known, despite estimates that 90% of NMSC is due to sun exposure. Our exploratory study synthesizes environmental data with demographic and clinical data to determine whether UV indices (UVIs) and non-sunbelt (non-SB) locale (latitudes >40 degrees, which comprises most of the US) might contribute to incidence rates of two types of NMSC: cutaneous squamous cell and Merkel cell carcinomas.

Methods: UVIs from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database and meshed with corresponding locales in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (version 8.4.0.1). Four SB and five NSB locales contained sufficient data for analysis. Linear mixed modeling was performed with the outcome variable of the age-adjusted incidence of NMSC cancer (comprised of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (CSCCHN) and Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC)), the two most common types of NMSC contained within SEER). Non-SB locale and percent of days with UVI >3 were independent variables.

Results: Percent of days with UVI >3 increased during this period, as did the overall NMSC (combined CSCCHN and MCC) skin cancer incidence, though MCC incidence alone did not increase during our study period. Environmental factors that significantly contributed to the age-adjusted overall NMSC (combined CSCCHN and MCC) cancer incidence (per 100,000 individuals) included NSB locale (b=1.227, p=0.0019) and percent of days with UVIs >3 (b=0.028, p<0.0001), as well as clinical factors of percent white race and percent male, by linear mixed modeling.

Conclusions: Our results are limited by the completeness of the NOAA and SEER databases, and do not include basal cell carcinoma. Nevertheless, our data demonstrate that environmental factors, such as latitude in NSB locale and UVI indices, can affect the age-adjusted overall NMSC (defined as CSCCHN and MCC in this study) incidence even in this relatively short period of time. Prospective studies over longer time periods are needed to identify the extent to which these findings are clinically significant so that increased educational efforts to promote sun-safe behaviors can be maximally effective.