Between nudges and mandates: The drivers of COVID-19 vaccination intentions and subsequent uptake in Russia.

Despite high levels of morbidity and mortality, as well as the widespread availability of domestic vaccines, Russia demonstrated significantly low rates of vaccination throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This research explores vaccination intentions before the start of the immunisation campaign and the consequent uptake in Russia after the introduction of mandatory vaccination policy in certain industries and proof-of-immunisation for social activities. Using a nationally representative panel dataset, we analyse factors behind individual vaccination decisions using binary and multinomial logistic regressions. Special attention is given to the effect of employment in industries with vaccine mandates and personal factors which determine individual "nudgeability" to vaccination (e.g., personality traits, beliefs, vaccine alertness, self-perceived vaccine availability etc.). Our results show that 49 per cent of the population received at least one shot of COVID-19 vaccine by autumn 2021 after the introduction of mandatory vaccination. Vaccination intentions before the rollout of the nationwide immunisation campaign are correlated with the consequent attitudes and uptake, although the prediction is not perfect. 40 percent of vaccine refusers eventually got vaccinated, while 16 percent of vaccine supporters turned into refusers, revealing the lack of promotion of vaccine safety and effectiveness. To a large extent, vaccination refusal and hesitance are explained by vaccine alertness. Vaccine mandates significantly increased the uptake in several affected industries, especially education. These results offer important insights for designing information policy, relevant for future vaccination campaigns.