Modeling the profitability of investing in cooling systems in dairy farms under several intensities of heat stress in the Mediterranean.

Heat stress (HS) in dairy cows affects dry matter intake, milk yield, reproduction, and culling rate. Cooling systems (CS) may partially revert these effects, but their profitability depends on the price of milk and effectiveness and cost of the CS. Because these effects may interact over time, stochastic dynamic models are useful tools to evaluate the effects of HS and the profitability of CS. Several HS intensity scenarios, from 1,000 to 31,000 temperature and humidity index load (THI, units/yr), were simulated in a stochastic dynamic dairy herd simulator, with 3 milk prices (€0.28, €0.32, and €0.36/L) and 2 initial investment costs in fans and sprinklers (€100 and €200/cow). The HS and CS scenarios simulated were modeled as a function of the THI to predict the technical and economic performance in 21 selected locations of the Mediterranean. The THI mean of the 21 selected locations was 12,530 (ranging from 6,908 to 31,424). Heat stress reduced milk yield in a range of 346 to 1,696 L/cow per year, feeding costs in a range of €63 to €266/cow per year, and pregnancy rate in a range of 1.0 to 3.0%/yr and increased culling rates in a range of 5.7 to 16.4%/yr compared with the control scenario. The implementation of CS increased milk yield in a range from 173 to 859 L/cow per year, feeding cost in a range from €26 to €139/cow per year, and pregnancy rate in a range from 0.1 to 1.0%/yr and reduced culling rate in a range from 1.0 to 3.9%/yr compared with HS scenarios. When the THI was ≤6,300, the implementation of CS was never profitable, from 6,300 to 11,000 was dependent on milk price and CS cost, and over 11,000 was consistently profitable. The Δnet margin (€/cow per year) for CS at an initial investment cost of €100/cow ranged from -9 to 239 and at an initial investment cost of €200/cow ranged from -24 to 225. The profitability of CS depends on the THI, milk price, and CS cost.