The Accuracy of Nonstandardized MELD/PELD Score Exceptions in the Pediatric Liver Allocation System.

Background: In the United States, over half of pediatric candidates receive exceptions and status upgrades that increase their allocation model of end-stage liver disease/pediatric end-stage liver disease (MELD/PELD) score above their laboratory MELD/PELD score. We determined whether these "nonstandardized" MELD/PELD exceptions accurately depict true pretransplant mortality risk.

Methods: Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified pediatric candidates (<18 y of age) with chronic liver failure added to the waitlist between June 2016 and September 2021 and estimated all-cause pretransplant mortality with mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models that treated allocation MELD/PELD and exception status as time-dependent covariates. We also estimated concordance statistics comparing the performance of laboratory MELD/PELD with allocation MELD/PELD. We then compared the proportion of candidates with exceptions before and after the establishment of the National Liver Review Board.

Results: Out of 2026 pediatric candidates listed during our study period, 403 (19.9%) received an exception within a week of listing and 1182 (58.3%) received an exception before delisting. Candidates prioritized by their laboratory MELD/PELD scores had an almost 9 times greater risk of pretransplant mortality compared with candidates who received the same allocation score from an exception (hazard ratio 8.69; 95% confidence interval, 4.71-16.03; P < 0.001). The laboratory MELD/PELD score without exceptions was more accurate than the allocation MELD/PELD score with exceptions (Harrell's c-index 0.843 versus 0.763). The proportion of patients with an active exception at the time of transplant decreased significantly after the National Liver Review Board was implemented (67.4% versus 43.4%, P < 0.001).

Conclusions: Nonstandardized exceptions undermine the rank ordering of pediatric candidates with chronic liver failure.