Duration of human papillomavirus persistence and its relationship with recurrent cervical dysplasia.

Objective: To evaluate how the duration of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence influences the risk of developing recurrent high-grade cervical dysplasia (CIN2+).

Methods: Data of patients with persistent HPV infection (at least at 6 months) after primary conization were extracted from a multi-institutional Italian database, retrospectively. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations between duration of HPV persistence with the 5-year risk of developing recurrent CIN2+.

Results: Overall, 545 patients met the inclusion criteria. Positive margins were detected in 160 (29.3%) patients. Overall, 247 (45.3%) and 123 (22.6%) patients had a documented infection from HPV16/18, and other high-risk HPV types. 187 (34.3%), 73 (13.4%), and 40 (7.3%) were diagnosed with persistent HPV infection at 12, 18, and 24 months, respectively. Patients with HPV persistence at 6 months experienced a risk of recurrence of 7.46%. Twelve-month HPV persistence strongly correlates with the risk of developing the recurrent disease (risk of recurrence: 13.1%). While, having HPV persistence >12 months did not correlate with an increased risk of recurrence (hazard ratio: 1.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-2.32); P  = 0.336, log-rank test).

Conclusion: HPV persistence is one of the most important factors predicting the risk of CIN2+ recurrence. The risk of CIN2+ recurrence increased with the increase of HPV persistence for up to 1 year. The persistence of HPV after the first year does not appear as a risk factor.