The impact of the human development index on stomach cancer incidence in Brazil.

Background: The incidence of stomach cancer (SC) is declining in most countries in the world, potentially associated with increases in the human development index (HDI). This study was conducted to characterise the incidence and trends of SC in the Brazilian population and its correlations with HDI components: longevity, education and income.

Methods: Data on incidence of SC from Population-based cancer registries (PBCR) in Brazil during the period 1988-2017 were extracted from the Instituto Nacional de Câncer. Incidence rates were estimated for each PBCR in the same calendar period. Trends were analysed using the Joinpoint Regression Program, and correlations with HDI components (longevity, education and income) were examined using the Pearson test.

Results: SC incidence rates in Brazil ranged from 22 to 89/100,000 among men and from 8 to 44/100,000 among women. The highest incidence rates for men and women occurred in northern Brazil. The SC incidence is stable in most of the capitals of the northern and northeast parts of the country, with reductions for both sexes in the South, Southeastern and Midwest. There was an inverse correlation of SC incidence rates for women with the components of HDI education ( = 0.038) and longevity ( = 0.012). For men, the inverse correlation occurred for the longevity HDI ( = 0.013).

Conclusion: The improvement of HDIs in Brazil during the study period may have contributed to the stability of SC incidence but was not sufficient to reduce the overall SC incidence in the whole country. To better understand SC incidence in Brazil, efforts should be made towards ensuring that incidence data is recorded by PBCRs promptly.