Stratifying Risk of Future Growth Among Sporadic Vestibular Schwannomas.

Objective: In certain cases, clinicians may consider continued observation of a vestibular schwannoma after initial growth is detected. The aim of the current work was to determine if patients with growing sporadic vestibular schwannomas could be stratified by the likelihood of subsequent growth based on initial growth behavior.

Study Design: Slice-by-slice volumetric tumor measurements from 3,505 serial magnetic resonance imaging studies were analyzed from 952 consecutively treated patients.

Setting: Three tertiary-referral centers.

Patients: Adults with sporadic vestibular schwannoma.

Interventions: Wait-and-scan.

Main Outcome Measures: Composite end point of subsequent growth- or treatment-free survival rates, where growth is defined as an additional increase of at least 20% in tumor volume from the volume at the time of initial growth.

Results: Among 405 patients who elected continued observation despite documented growth, stratification, of volumetric growth rate into less than 25% (reference: n = 107), 25 to less than 50% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; p = 0.06; n = 96), 50 to less than 100% (HR, 1.71; p = 0.002; n = 112), and at least 100% (HR, 2.01; p < 0.001; n = 90) change per year predicted the likelihood of future growth or treatment. Subsequent growth- or treatment-free survival rates (95% confidence interval) at year 5 after detection of initial growth were 31% (21-44%) for those with less than 25% growth per year, 18% (10-32%) for those with 25 to less than 50%, 15% (9-26%) for those with 50 to less than 100%, and 6% (2-16%) for those with at least 100%. Neither patient age ( p = 0.15) nor tumor volume at diagnosis ( p = 0.95) significantly differed across stratification groups.

Conclusions: At the time of diagnosis, clinical features cannot consistently predict which tumors will ultimately display aggressive behavior. Stratification by volumetric growth rate at the time of initial growth results in a stepwise progression of increasing likelihood of subsequent growth. When considering continued observation after initial growth detection, almost 95% of patients who have tumors that double in volume between diagnosis and the first detection of growth demonstrate further tumor growth or undergo treatment if observed to 5 years.