Prediction of surgical outcomes in severe encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis using a computed tomography scoring system.

Background/purpose: Encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS) is a rare and potential lethal complication of peritoneal dialysis characterized by bowel obstruction. Surgical enterolysis is the only curative therapy. Currently, there are no tools for predicting postsurgical prognosis. This study aimed to identify a computed tomography (CT) scoring system that could predict mortality after surgery in patients with severe EPS.

Methods: This retrospective study enrolled patients with severe EPS who underwent surgical enterolysis in a tertiary referral medical center. The association of CT score with surgical outcomes including mortality, blood loss, and bowel perforation was analyzed.

Results: Thirty-four patients who underwent 37 procedures were recruited and divided into a survivor and non-survivor group. The survivor group had higher body mass indices (BMIs, 18.1 vs. 16.7 kg/m, p = 0.035) and lower CT scores (11 vs. 17, p < 0.001) than the non-survivor group. The receiver operating characteristic curve revealed that a CT score of ≥15 could be considered a cutoff point to predict surgical mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.93, sensitivity of 88.9%, and specificity of 82.1%. Compared with the group with CT scores of <15, the group with CT scores of ≥15 had a lower BMI (19.7 vs. 16.2 kg/m, p = 0.004), higher mortality (4.2% vs. 61.5%, p < 0.001), greater blood loss (50 vs. 400 mL, p = 0.007), and higher incidence of bowel perforation (12.5% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.006).

Conclusion: The CT scoring system could be useful in predicting surgical risk in patients with severe EPS receiving enterolysis.