Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871-2016.

Cliometrica (Berl)

Department of Economics, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road, Thunder Bay, ON P7B5E1 Canada.

Published: May 2023

AI Article Synopsis

  • - The paper analyzes the short-term economic effects of influenza pandemics from 1871 to 2016 across 16 countries, using comprehensive historical databases.
  • - It reveals that deaths caused by pandemics significantly affect business cycles, particularly in the economy's GDP fluctuations in the years following 1870.
  • - The study emphasizes that even less deadly pandemics can have notable economic impacts, shifting focus from the usual long-term growth studies and specific historical cases like the Black Death or COVID-19.

Article Abstract

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871-2016 using the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10225784PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11698-023-00269-wDOI Listing

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